The Literary Divide/Dr. Paul Barrows
| Like many in the African American community, at the outset of the 2008 Presidential Campaign, I was inspired and deeply moved by the emergence of the candidacy of Senator Barack Obama. Many were skeptical and believed that our nation was not ready for an African American to achieve this ultimate national leadership position. Because of that, many, like me, were reluctant supporters of Senator Hillary Clinton. Like many Democrats, I had issues with Senator Clinton’s support for the tragic war in Iraq and with the fact that, more broadly, she seems to be a “fence straddler” who often finds it too hard to take strong and consistent issues on tough issues. Initially, I was convinced by the major plank in her campaign platform that urged all to support her because she was the only candidate that was “electable” who could beat any and all Republicans that she was matched against. Indeed, all of the initial national polls between Democrats and Republicans provided numbers that substantiated these projections. Within the past two weeks, history was made by both Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in the Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire Primary, respectively. Senator Obama made history with his stunning victory in our nation’s first and pivotal vote for the 2008 Campaign, the Iowa Caucuses. The victory of an African American over a field of White candidates with one Hispanic candidate in a lily-White state like Iowa was unprecedented. Equally as extraordinary was the fact that Obama roundly defeated Senator Hillary Clinton by 9 percentage points overall; all while splitting the vote equally from Senator Clinton’s base, White female Democratic voters. Senator Clinton was also bested by a surging Senator John Edwards who came in second edging her by 1 percentage point. In the previous presidential election campaigns run by Shirley Chisolm, Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton, few believed that an African American candidate could defeat a White candidate — especially in a lily-White state like Iowa. Even in states where African Americans were demographically much more numerical, as was stated in the Senatorial campaign of Harold Ford, Jr. in Tennessee, common knowledge was that while White voters may project an interest in an African American candidate publicly, in polls or interviews, once they got behind the curtain to log in their vote, African American candidates could expect that 10 percent or more of them would not vote for them solely because of their race. As far as the electoral process is concerned, the Iowa Caucuses are fairly unique in American presidential politics. On the Democratic side, groups of delegates come together to caucus with one another about their favorite candidates. In most primaries, the delegates have only one vote. In Iowa, the Democratic delegates have two votes; hence, the need for a caucus. In the first round, the candidates have to receive a minimum of 15 percent of the delegates’ votes to be forwarded into the second round of the election. Several of the Democratic candidates, Joe Biden, Christopher Dodd and Dennis Kuchinich, all told their delegates to lend their support to Senator Obama if they did not receive the required 15 percent of the vote to move forward in that process. It should be noted that all of them made it clear that this support for Obama was a one-time only event due to the special circumstances of the Iowa Caucuses. Notwithstanding that, there is at least two ways to view this. Was it a case of “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” ergo we must do anything to stop the Hillary train? Or, was it a case of those candidates being enlightened such that they could be inspired and come to believe that Senator Obama was truly electable and worth endorsing? Whatever the answer to that question is, the Obama train is leaving the station with an unprecedented number of new youthful voters who are people of color, women and independents anxious and ready to come on board. As was the case across the entire state of Iowa, voters in New Hampshire lined up one behind the other in record numbers to be a part of this emerging history to get a glance at the man who is being received with receptions akin to a rock star. Despite his momentum and high projections that he would also win the New Hampshire Primary, Senator Obama lost a close race to Senator Clinton who overcame projections that had her as an 8- to 10-point underdog as she bested Senator Obama in New Hampshire by 2 percentage points. Unique to this Primary is the fact that Senator Obama got the majority of the White male vote. Senator Clinton must also be congratulated for this awesome and historic victory. What made the difference for her was an unusually high turnout out of women (White women) who constituted 57% of the Democratic electorate. Senator Clinton profited by receiving a large majority of their votes. She also received some controversial help from her husband, former President Bill Clinton, who made some angry and potentially controversial statements that may come back to haunt her campaign. On the day before the vote, President Clinton charged the media with being unfair to Hillary stating what amounted to an accusation that the media gave an inexperienced Obama a pass in not critiquing his position against the war in Iraq that they never would have given to a woman. This could easily be interpreted that he was given a pass only because he was Black and this may well produce a backlash. Senator Clinton is just as much dependent on the African American base of the Democratic Party as is Senator Obama and this may hurt her campaign in future primaries especially in the South. The next phase of the 2008 Presidential campaign primaries moves away from the North to Nevada and South Carolina, which is the home state of Senator John Edwards. How will the big three, Obama, Edwards and Clinton do in these pivotal upcoming primaries? Will Senator John Edwards regain “the big mo” and take the lead to win his first primary in his home state? Will Senator Clinton, who has recouped with a slight win over Senator Obama in the New Hampshire Primary, assume and maintain the predicted reigns as the frontrunner on the Democratic side with the powerful organization that she has built? If she loses in Nevada and South Carolina, what are the implications for the future of her campaign? As for Governor Bill Richardson, the only other remaining candidate with at least some potential to stay in the race, it is not clear why this very qualified Hispanic candidate has yet to receive any substantial traction. For Senator Obama, complex and vexing questions remain. Will the presence of the powerful African American mogul Oprah Winfrey, who attended a rally with 30,000 South Carolinian’s with Obama, be a significant factor in generating support for the Obama campaign? Will the fact that South Carolina has a majority of African American voters make a difference for him? Will they finally break for Obama over Clinton despite the fondness for former President Bill Clinton? Will there be any backlash from President Clinton’s comments? Are White voters in the South different from White voters in the North? How much of the Southern White vote can Obama expect to get? And of course, the ultimate question is, have we as a nation moved to a new era where the race (or gender) of this or that candidate really doesn’t matter any more? We shall know the answers to these questions and more as Campaign 2008 unfolds. Stay tuned… |
Is America really ready for "President" Barack Obama?